RPG-29: The Great Equalizer

At the beginning of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict, the main Israeli concern was a report that Hezbollah possessed Russian Kornet antitank missiles.  However, it has been the RPG-29 that is stolen the show.  These man-portable lightweight weapons are powerful enough to destroy the Merkava tank, which is reputed to be the most thoroughly armored tank in the world.  According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Hezbollah acquired significant numbers of the RPG-29 from Syria, and the weapon has been a major source of Israeli casualties in the conflict.

The RPG-29 Vampir with the tandem HEAT (high explosive anti-tank) PG-29V tandem charge warhead was developed by Russia in the late 1980s in response to the development of tanks having explosive  reactive armor.  The weapon is designed to actuate explosive armor with a first shaped charge, while a second charge is reserved to penetrate the tank's hull.  The Soviet army received the RPG-29 in 1989.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, these weapons could be found in almost all of the former Warsaw Pact nations.

The strategic importance of the dramatic battlefield effectiveness of the RPG-29 cannot be underestimated.  The Iraqi resistance has not had access to significant quantities of RPG-29s because they were not readily available in the international weapons market until after post-Gulf War sanctions were applied to Saddam Hussein's Iraq. However, Syria and Iran  possess large inventories of these weapons.  Certainly, the Pentagon must be taking note of the effectiveness of these weapons against the Israeli forces in south Lebanon when considering the possibility of a military confrontation with Iran or Syria.  In fact, the calculus of occupying any potentially hostile country has been significantly shifted.  If the occupying forces can no longer rely on armored vehicles to engage militants or to travel, the price of occupation in terms of casualties will be much greater.  This necessarily impacts countries like the United States and Israel more than it would countries that place a lesser value on the lives of their soldiers.  In other words, the unexpected effectiveness of the RPG-29 is a severe blow to the West.  It is the great equalizer.  For $500 per launcher and $250 per missile round, a militant group can purchase a light, mobile weapon that is easy to conceal and that can reliably destroy a main battle tank that costs millions of dollars.

The long-term implications for Israel are even more significant.  If Palestinian militants are ever able to acquire significant quantities of RPG-29s they could for the first time ever present a significant challenge to the Israeli army.  This is particularly true because the Israelis have demonstrated an aversion to ground fighting and taking casualties in the campaign against Hezbollah.  There is no doubt that groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, both of which have close ties to Hezbollah, have been observing the conflict in South Lebanon with strong interest and have noted Israel's reluctance to send more ground troops in against Hezbollah fighters who are armed primarily with RPG-29s. 

In fact, given the proximity of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to major Israeli population centers (the distances could easily be traveled on foot by armed militants, who would have to keep themselves dispersed enough to avoid being destroyed by aircraft or armored vehicles) it is possible to imagine that sometime in the future that a Palestinian militia armed with such man-portable weapons could possibly successfully invade and conquer Israel without the use of expensive military equipment such as aircraft and tanks.  If militants could penetrate Israeli territory enough to turn the battle into hand-to-hand fighting within major population centers, F-16s and nuclear weapons would be of no use to Israel.  The previously unthinkable defeat of Israel could become a possibility.

For this reason, it could be theorized that recent developments on the ground in South Lebanon have made the "two state solution" to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict effectively unworkable from a pragmatic standpoint.  Once a Palestinian state is established it would be practically impossible to prevent militants from acquiring large quantities of RPG-29s and other military equipment that could be used to equip infantry ground fighters.  Once this happened, Israel would be in deep trouble.

On the other hand, judging from how Israel's Arab citizens have been integrated into the country, the establishment of a single secular state incorporating both present-day Israel and the present Palestinian territories might have a chance for success.  Demographically, Arabs would have a small voting advantage in such a state, however economic power would remain largely in the power of the Jewish citizens.  The rights of Jews and Arabs alike would be preserved in such a state, and a secular Israel/Palestine could become a genuine beacon of democracy and liberalism to the region.   This could be the catalyst to the "New Middle East" that Washington has been seeking.

Of course, a certain amount of goodwill would need to be established before a one state solution could ever be made feasible.  If Israel continues to inflict needless civilian casualties on Arab populations that end up on the front pages of the Arab press, the well will be further poisoned and its most viable path out of this seemingly endless conflict will be closed.

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Where do you get the quoted cost of "$500 per launcher and $250 per missile round"? Average handguns cost more than $500, let alone a reusable rocket launcher.

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What do you suppose the 'truth' is about the use of RPG 29's inside Iraq? Supplied by Syria or Iran?

Russia has sold RPG 29s to Iran and Syria. Syria is no friend of Iraq Sunnis (Saddam tried and failed to influence a sunni insurgency inside Syria years gone by). Syria is playing friendly and helpful to Iraq's Shiite-heavy government and is trying to show a smiley face to Israel re quiet Golan heights negotiations. Syria does not want to raise temperature of U.S. ire by being caught providing RPG 29s to Shia insurgents.

SO - RPG 29 attacks inside Iraq must be Iranian supplied? and as they are NOT manufactured / reversed engineered by Iran - they must be supplied to Iran by Russia. Therefore Russia is implicitly linked to state-sponsored terrorism inside Iraq.

Concur or conclude otherwise?
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[glenn]

also you note in your article that the RPG-29 equates to a tool of strategic importance --I would disagree with you there as really this is a tool more of tactical importance . Please note that if the possession of RPG-29's was such a strategic plus (a world beater if you will) Lebanon would be under complete Hezbollah control.

By history, during the Arab-Israeli wars the Israeli army got its tank corps mauled by Egyptian troopers fielding anti-tank guided missiles--which btw are still cheaper/unit than a tank-- when the Israeli's were foolish enough to attack the Egyptians without infantry support along the Suez canal. The lesson the Israeli's learned then was that you could not attack infantry with Anti-tank weapons with only armor and that you needed supporting infantry and artillery as well

During the recent Lebanese conflict there were actually not very many Merkava tanks put out of action despite the RPG-29's. The Israelis were not properly trained for this conflict. Prior to Lebanon the Israeli tank crews previously had been utilized as infantry in the Palestinian areas vs. the Intifadah. Also the Israeli infantry had not been training in the combined arms fashion it had in the past. The Israeli infantry losses that were due to the RPG's and anti tank missiles occured when they tended to take shelter in buildings which were then rather easily targetted by the Hezbollah RPG launchers.

[glenn]

Addendum:
meant in Para 5 that the US was sustaining the equivalent loss rate of a 9/11 daily during its involvement in ww2.

[glenn]

You have raised some interesting points--

I seriously doubt a large military force on foot (light infantry)--could occupy a country that uses vehicular based defense unless you are talking about a country with largely impassible terrain (mountains or big dense jungles)--you see SOME mountains in the Middle East but no big swaths of dense jungles--.

the issue with attacking in force--that is outnumbering your opponents LOCALLY to acheive a victory is really as old as warfare itself(indeed you even see it in ritualized warfare--sports games )--in order to achieve that local superiority you have to concentrate your troops in an area where you think the enemy is weakest but which also makes you vulnerable to counter attacks --not good when dealing with an enemy that can amass a lot of firepower in that same spot whether it is delivered by artillery or aircraft;

the RPG's have at most a 500 meter range so you could dispense your vehicle based ground troops 600 meters from your opponents front, flanks and rear--and can have a go at them mano-a-mano if you have to and no attacking force would last long

also keep in mind that present day warfare with missile weapons (i.e. guns etc) requires a supply line (as you will eventually run out of the bullets or rockets you are carrying) and travelling by foot would leave you without much of a logistics (resupply) capability--living off the land in a hostile country--where almost every fit adult citizen up to 40 yo or so is a reservist with a weapon-- would be tough

also remind yourself that although the Israeli's appeared "reluctant" to take casualties in Lebanon that would not hold true with defending their own turf--look at it this way--the US public was reluctant to continue a war like VietNam or Iraq largely because they do not feel the relatively few casualties that have occured are in the national best interest--get an opponent to invade the US (remember the scare after Pearl Harbor?) and you will see a different response--heck take a look at WW2 where every DAY during the conflict the US was troops at the equivalent of 9/11.

One must remember that in order to conquer a modern day country you have to get control of the cities and either conqure them or starve them out--last time I looked urban warfare is pretty bloody and usually the defending troops have the advantage as they know the terrain and have the support of the local populace--seige is not an option for an army on foot because again you would be concentrating your troops and losing your ability to disperse and losing what mobility you have-you also have to have some way to keep them supplied with munitions--that's assuming Jerusalem just stands by while you surround Tel Aviv with a ring of Palestinian or Hezbollah troops.

Also you have to remember that communications between members of your light infantry army would be needed in order to coordinate their actions--otherwise you have groups of armed men who might be roaming around the country side shooting at each other (yes warfare is chaos incarnate) and fratricide (blue on blue--or friendly vs friendly) engagements are nothing new in the age of missile warfare--even the high tech US noted a 30% of the casualties in the first Gulf War were due to the oxymoronic term "friendly-fire)--again the comms issue leads your light infantry troops and their leaders vulnerable to electronic counter measures and even counter attack (direction finding and localizing equipment) by a technologically superior enemy whether they have RPG-29's or not.

So as good as the RPG 29 is at busting up a million dollar tank or taking out a bunker it is still primarily a defensive weapon. It is countered as other anti-tank weapons by true combined arms with infantry providing cover for the tanks against infantry carried antitank weapons while the tanks and attack helos go after known concentrations of enemies, fortifications, and vehicular weapons systems. Remember the possession of PG-29's is not a panacea. Most modern day armies have similar types of weapons carried by their infantry in greater numbers PLUS all the other weapons along with the training/training/logistics/communications and that are inherent in their orgainzation. The Israeli army is no different.

Finally in order to go on an offensive drive you still need:
1. training as standard infantry--not guerillas
2. communications to coordinate your troops
3. mobility (which is better than your opponents)
4. logistics

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