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May 22, 2005

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Im also skeptic about this. That is why my interest is on this.

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There are wonderful mysteries out there in the natural world, then I leave some room for surprises.

Ben Cliff

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I'm a peak oil skeptic too. Would be interesting to see how the price of oil reacts if the UD turned off the printing presses.

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So does this mean we have hit peak oil or no?
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Engineer-Poet

JLK:  Is there some reason for the bottom-to-top ordering of the comments?  It is extremely hard to read.

Jack

Thank you for explaining how refinery shortages account for high oil prices. I had been wondering about this myself, but didn't make the link.

However, I think there may be a piece of the puzzle missing. Refinery configurations have long been seen a key element in determining oil price spreads. A lack of refineries that are able to convert poor quality crudes to valuable products should shift demand from heavy crudes to light. Since commonly reported benchmark fuels (WTI, Brent) are relatively light and expensive, it may be that the headline oil prices have increased more than the median price.

It is also worth noting that the refining sector can not adjust rapidly to match supply and price changes. No new refineries have been build for over 30 years and I don't think there is much debottlenecking capacity remaining.

Any greenfield project developed now would not be producing for at least five years (if it could be developed) and, I believe, would have to earn refining margins at or near current rates for over ten years after that to breakeven.

CKR

Hi Nancy -

Yes, there is a lot of oil left. The question is whether it can be extracted economically. Right now it seems to my economically limited mind that pumping and refinery capacity along with political factors (like that little difficulty in Iraq) are more limiting than reserves.

Another way I disagree with the Peak Oilers that didn't come out in JLK's article is that I believe that rising oil prices will bring in alternative sources like the Canadian tar sands and nuclear power which will become more economic as they are developed in response to the need.

For some of my agreements, see my original article as linked by JLK or here: http://whirledview.typepad.com/whirledview/2005/05/peak_oil.html

nancy peters

Hi CKR,

I am relatively new to Peak Oil so I was very interested to see your response. However, it seems that you are saying that there still is a lot of oil left, which does not seem to be disputed by any peak oilers.
But perhaps I am misunderstanding you?

Also, what suggestions of Peak Oil do you see as worth taking seriously.

The comments to this entry are closed.

About The Editor

  • Searching For The Truth
    JLK is an intellectual property attorney living in the U.S. Northeast.

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