Philip Weiss in his excellent blog describes a palpable level of fear (some may say paranoia) that was expressed by some supporters of Israel at a recent Philadelphia area event in response to the recently published book on the Israel Lobby by Mearsheimer and Walt.
The fear may seem misplaced at first because Israel is in a stronger position today politically and militarily than it has ever been. It has the unqualified support of President Bush, Congress and all of the major 2008 Presidential candidates. Saddam's Iraq has been destroyed, Arafat is dead, the Palestinians are on the brink of civil war, Sunnis and Shi'ites are killing each other throughout the Middle East and Iran and Syria are on the defensive.
On the other hand, there are several signs that Israel's position is likely to weaken on several fronts in the years and decades to come. Israel has demographic issues; its enemies are likely to narrow the qualitative military advantage that it presently enjoys (this has already started to happen with the Syrian acquisition of advanced Russian anti-aircraft systems); and the Mearsheimer/Walt book likely portends a decline to some extent of its political support in the United States. The decline of the U.S. Dollar makes American support for Israel more expensive, and as energy prices continue to rise its enemies and potential enemies in the region will gain strength.
Strategically, it is clear that now is the time for Israel to negotiate and finalize peace agreements with Syria and the Palestinians. Its negotiating position is unlikely to get any stronger by waiting, and it is quite likely to weaken in the years to come. Israel will never have a better opportunity for long term peace on advantageous terms than it has right now.
Yes, very good points. I hope Israel follows this advice, and things turn out reasonably well for the whole area.
Posted by: Neil B. | October 07, 2007 at 01:53 PM